Memia

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Memia 2022.24: TPNW: 62 and counting☢️🚫// not very competitive, then📉// big solar, bigger solar☀️// visual Turing test🤯🥽// space bubble shield🫧// eco-airships over Spain💬
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Memia Newsletter

Memia 2022.24: TPNW: 62 and counting☢️🚫// not very competitive, then📉// big solar, bigger solar☀️// visual Turing test🤯🥽// space bubble shield🫧// eco-airships over Spain💬

DO. NOT. REPLY🙊

Ben Reid
Jun 21
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Memia 2022.24: TPNW: 62 and counting☢️🚫// not very competitive, then📉// big solar, bigger solar☀️// visual Turing test🤯🥽// space bubble shield🫧// eco-airships over Spain💬
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Kia ora,

Another week, another Memia newsletter…your regular scan across the latest emerging tech and thinking about the future from Aotearoa New Zealand. Welcome!

(Reminder, these weekly emails are *way* too long for most email clients (😇). iOS users - you can read Memia in the Substack app (click below). Gmail users, you can click on the email title above to read online and avoid the annoying “[Message clipped]” link.)

Read Memia in the new Substack app
Now available for iOS

Sunday’s instalment of my book in 30 Sundays, ⏩Fast Forward Aotearoa started exploring scenarios for two of the mega challenges facing the country right now…anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity collapse (all the happy topics):

Memia
⏩Fast Forward Aotearoa #3: Big challenges, big opportunities
This week I’m going to skip ahead and start to frame two of the biggest challenges facing our small nation on the edge of the world: anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity collapse…and start shaping some scenarios for how each challenge could play out…
Read more
24 days ago · Ben Reid

A short extract:

Biodiversity scenarios for Aotearoa

…high level scenarios sum up how ecological collapse (…restoration…) could play out for Aotearoa:

Scenario 1: One large toxic protein paddock The implementation of the DOC Biodiversity Strategy Te Mana o te Taiao fails resoundingly: regional councils become even more captured by Big Agri and agreement cannot be reached to reduce the quantity of land dedicated to farming or reduce farming-related pollution to sustainable levels. Native forest continues to be cleared for animal agriculture, conservation estates are encroached upon for mining and mineral extraction, introduced pests spread uncontrolled and new pests arrive, native wildlife species extinctions accelerate until all native species have gone. Farmers need to pour greater and greater quantities of fertilisers and agrichemicals onto the land to maintain “productivity” and every river becomes unswimmable and every water table undrinkable without treatment.

Scenario 2: Nature hangs on Parts of Te Mana o te Taiao are successfully implemented and there are some wins: a few species are brought back from the brink of extinction and other declines are halted. Whole swathes of conservation land are declared clear of introduced pests and native forest conversion to farm land stops. Carbon credits for planting exotic forestry are halted and the over time commercial forestry land is converted to native forest when the wood is harvested. Some controls on fertiliser and agrichemical use in farming result in slow improvements in water quality in most catchments.

Scenario 3: Aotearoa restored A national conservation land cover target of 70% is declared and a “fair transition” is managed to replant farming land back to native bush and wetlands. Pest eradication accelerates and by 2040 there are no more possums, rats, stoats, ferrets or weasels on terrestrial Aotearoa. All tahr, goats, deer, feral cats and other introduced pests are also eradicated on conservation land and resticted to fenced off private hunting estates (which are also encouraged to be planted in bush). A national network of smart IoT sensors rapidly alerts DOC to any incursion of invasive species on the conservation estate and drones sent to dispatch them humanely. Native plant, tree, bird and bat species recover quickly and rapidly take up possession of the vast forest area left largely untouched. Humans mostly keep themselves to themselves in fenced off urban and restricted coastal areas, growing food (including cellular meat proteins) in massive robot-run automated vertical farms and occasionally venturing out into the wilds for a taste of nature. Active measures continue to be taken to further isolate human economic production and consumption from natural ecosystems.

Scenario 4: Ark Aotearoa Not only is Aotearoa’s natural ecosystem restored above 70% but Aotearoa starts bringing native species back from extinction using new genetic revival techniques. Once again Moa roam the forests and giant Haast Eagles soar over the mountains. In addition, Aotearoa becomes an “ark” for endangered species and ecosystems from the rest of the world: a series of giant geodesic “Eden Project” domes are erected at sites throughout the country, each containing flora and fauna from lost ecosystems around the globe. Plus Aotearoa works with other leading conservation-focused nations to advance solutions to de-acidify the oceans and actively protect massive ocean reserves to support endanged marine species.

Which one would you choose if you had to…?


Weekly roundup

🐨The most clicked link in last week’s edition (9% of openers) was the fun opera singing toy koala. Of course it was.

Also in the last week…

☢️🚫TPNW: 62 and counting

As Russia sabre-wrattles its nuclear arsenal and major states around the world continue to invest in their own nuclear arms, a voice of sanity comes in the form of the UN Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), first signed in January 2021, demanding nuclear states give up their weapons for good.

Aotearoa is one of 62 (…and counting) full signatories to the treaty and disarmament minister Phil Twyford is currently returning from the first meeting of signatories in Vienna.

Kazakhstan, one of the few countries in the world (alongside Ukraine) to have voluntarily surrendered their nuclear arsenal, is also among the signatories, it’s worth hearing what they have to say:

Twitter avatar for @nexta_tvNEXTA @nexta_tv
Kazakhstan called on world to completely abandon nuclear weapons by 2045 The war in Ukraine "and mutual threats of use of nuclear weapons make us think about collective vulnerability of humanity and urgent need to ban such weapons,"said Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi.
Image

June 19th 2022

418 Retweets3,791 Likes

Kazakh foreign minister Mukhtar Tieuberdi wrote in the Astana Times:

“On June 21–23, Vienna will host a historic event in the field of nuclear disarmament – ​​the First Meeting of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

The entry into force of this treaty in January 2021 became a long-awaited signal that demonstrated the determination of the UN member states to take concrete measures to outlaw nuclear weapons.

This was a significant moment for Kazakhstan, which in the past experienced detrimental consequences of nuclear tests. As President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted in his speech at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, “today Kazakhstan is an example and a role model for the whole world as a responsible state that voluntarily abandoned its nuclear-missile arsenal and closed the world’s largest nuclear test site.”

For half a century, our land suffered atmospheric, ground, and underground tests. This impacted the health of about 1.5 million Kazakhs living near the test site with an area of ​​​​more than 18,000 square kilometres. The consequences of radiation are felt to this day.”

At this point (predictably), no nuclear armed states have said they will ratify the treaty. Also Australia, which recently signed the AUKUS defence pact with the US and UK, is notably absent…although *perhaps* this may change with the new government.

📉Not very competitive, then

Also out in the big wide world, Aotearoa suffered the largest ranking drop among 63 countries surveyed, sinking 11 places in one year from 20th to 31st in the annual IMD global competitiveness rankings. (At the top end of the table, Denmark tipped Switzerland off the No.1 spot for the first time). Aotearoa is now sandwiched between Bahrain in 30th and Malaysia in 32nd, with rankings slipping across all four major categories of Economic Performance, Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and Infrastructure:

Peter Griffin examines the report’s findings in more detail, quoting World Competitiveness Centre (WCC) senior economist José Caballero on Aotearoa’s performance:

"…short term policy thinking, short term societal (non-political) thinking…slow transition of habits (consumption) and industry (investment) to low carbon economy…This short-term issue prioritization may lead to the neglect of long-term trends, such as those related to environmental sustainability which could have a severe global impact,"

Brutal to hear it stated so bluntly, but rings pretty true to my ears. Wake up call?

(Although as Peter notes, the lower rankings may be related to the impacts of Covid-19 on the Aotearoa economy throughout 2021… keep an eye out for 2023’s assessment to see if this is truly a long term drop or more of a a wobble…)

🏟️Incremental white elephant

Speaking of (lacking) foresight…some local news from my backyard: back in Memia 2021.48 I reported on how Christchurch City Council had designed a shiny new covered 30,000-seat stadium in the Metaverse (it looks great!)… but were somehow intent on spending another NZ$550M to build it in real life…

Source: Christchurch City Council

Well, predictably the projected bill has gone up… to NZ$683M (so far)… and the council is now consulting on whether to continue, stop or pause. (There is already a “temporary” 18,000-seater stadium in the suburb of Addington which is rarely anywhere near full). However, rugby being a religious affair for many in these parts, this really is a polarising, attention-grabbing issue… (Contrast: climate change, biodiversity collapse, threat of nuclear war, etc…)

All of this goes back to the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquakes in 2010-2011…ex-CCC councillor and now TOP politician Raf Manji is refreshingly candid about the sorry history of the project:

“It’s so frustrating because it could have been solved so simply – no one would even remember it now…What can you say? You just have to kind of have to apologise, essentially, to the people to say, ‘Yeah, we didn’t get this done’…And we all have to put our hands up and say collectively we did a bad job.”

My own view (please note that I am *not* standing for election🤣):

Twitter avatar for @ben_rBen Reid 🧠⏩☁ @ben_r
Live professional sport and concerts will be replaced by VR within 5 years or less. Plus superspreader pandemic wariness will surely suppress attendance further. Save the $600M+ and use the site for a replanted urban kahikitea forest.

Aaron Campbell NZ @AaronCampbellNZ

Can we learn from Dunedin- both from a regional development opportunity and cost challenge perspective? Chch needs to have a bloody honest conversation with residents https://t.co/8v727sRrZr

June 4th 2022

1 Retweet2 Likes

Perhaps there may be a middle ground yet: urban planner Nick Lovett wrote a very thoughtful piece: The false dichotomy of the Christchurch Stadium Debate, suggesting an incremental investment approach to force a tighter focus on benefit realisation all the way:

“…after waiting more than a decade, I believe that a central city stadium can be delivered much faster and within an affordable budget by making three strategic decisions:

  1. Relocate and refurbish the temporary stands at Addington to the central city as ground and site preparation proceed over the winter in time for the 2023 rugby season.

  2. Conduct a marginal cost to marginal benefit analysis and arbitration with the Crown regarding the need for a roof, while maintaining their commitment to funding $220 million of the capital cost.

  3. Design the stadium so that the temporary stands can be progressively and incrementally replaced to form a complete, permanent, purpose-built rectangular stadium.”

Ahhhh, the voice of reason… still a white elephant, but at least an incremental one.

☀️Big solar, bigger solar

South Canterbury electricity lines company EA Networks announced plans for a new solar farm near the village of Lauriston - CEO Roger Sutton estimates that the plant will be capable of producing 50 MW of power- enough power for the district to be energy self-sufficient on a normal day, without needing to draw electricity from the national grid.

(This is the second major solar development in Waitaha - at the end of last year Christchurch airport announced the 400-hectare Kōwhai Park, with Phase One aiming to deliver a 220-hectare solar array capable of generating 150 megawatts of power.)

(Good to see these investments starting to happen…. but this is all relatively small scale compared to other parts of the world closer to the equator - this week a plan was announced to build the world’s largest photovoltaic solar farm in the Philippines, estimated up to 3500MW capacity).

(….this led me down a rabbit hole researching the world’s largest solar installations…currently the largest capacity is the Golmud Solar Park in China (currently ~2800MW) - check out Wiki-Solar for a list of the world’s most giant solar parks…)

…the second largest (~2700MW) Bhadla Solar Park is in the Thar Desert in Rajasthan, India…

Soaking Up Sun in the Thar Desert

On the same topic, regular Memia correspondent @leighelse has a sensible suggestion for Aotearoa’s hydro lakes…would reduce evaporation as well (if changing the scenery a bit!):

Twitter avatar for @leighelseelse{} @leighelse
Putting floating solar arrays on Aotearoa's hydro lakes, where there is already network infrastructure, could make the solar panels more efficient AND defer hydro generation for evenings and dull days, thus extending capacity.
US Army deploys its first floating solar arrayThe Department of Defense has a lot of pollution to slash.theverge.com

June 18th 2022

1 Retweet6 Likes

🙊DO. NOT. REPLY.

Scientists working on China’s “Sky Eye” telescope reported that they might have picked up a narrow-band electromagnetic transmission from an alien civilisation: an article reporting the signal was posted on the website of China’s state-backed Science and Technology Daily newspaper … and then swiftly removed:

(If you haven’t read Lui Cixin’s The Three Body Problem and the other two books of the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy… do. This is exactly how it starts. Lesson: DO. NOT. REPLY.)

(Likely a false alarm, though…the 'alien' signal could very likely come from humans…but awaiting results of peer review with anticipation!)


[Weak] signals

OK…. on to this week’s collection of tech signals from near and far futures…

Defending crypto

Bitcoin dipped below US$18K earlier this week before recovering to US$21K at the time of writing. Some graph this, eh:

However, the underlying software technology continues to be developed… mostly independent of the speculative bubbles surrounding it…

  • Matthew Green, a cryptographer and professor at Johns Hopkins University in the US writes a detailed and systematic argument in defence of crypto and blockchain technology:

“‘Public blockchain’ technology enables many stupid things: today’s cryptocurrency schemes can be venal, corrupt, overpromised. But the core technology is absolutely not useless. In fact, I think there are some pretty exciting things happening in the field, even if most of them are further away from reality than their boosters would admit. Moreover, many of crypto’s technical problems are also amenable to …technical solutions, many of which are already here or on their way to deployment.”

  • In the same vein, the thread below from Ari Paul resonates for me — having been there for the 1998 dotcom crash, we were all just too early… crypto right now has a similar vibe.

Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
Imo, crypto now going through something vaguely like post-2000 tech crash. We proved modest product market fit in several areas, but A. Products and infrastructure need to be much better to truly cross chasm to mainstream. B. And adoption is ~5 years behind where some hoped. /1

June 14th 2022

595 Retweets3,398 Likes

Quantum advantage

Quantum technology continues to tantalise in its potential to completely disrupt the computing industry… but still without a clear pathway to practical (let alone commercial) applications.

In a recent step forward, scientists at California Institute of Technology finally developed mathematical proof that quantum computers can perform specific classes of tasks exponentially faster than classical computers:

Twitter avatar for @memialabsMemia @memialabs
Quantum computers proved to have ‘quantum advantage’ on some tasks
Quantum computers proved to have ‘quantum advantage’ on some tasksNot only do quantum computers have the edge over classical computers on some tasks, but they are also exponentially faster, according to a new mathematical proofbuff.ly

June 16th 2022

3D printed whole robots

This is going to be revolutionary at scale:

Twitter avatar for @memialabsMemia @memialabs
New 3D Printing Tech Spits Out Whole Robots All at Once
New 3D Printing Tech Spits Out Whole Robots All at OnceA swarm of tiny robots might just save your life one day—or at least that’s the idea with a new type of tiny robot that can be 3D printed all at once. In a new study published in Science today, a team of researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles developed a new 3D printing method that…buff.ly

June 18th 2022

🤯🥽“Turing Test” of VR

Mark Zuckerberg gave an inside look at Meta Reality Labs’ latest R&D, showing off several VR headset prototypes in one demo, aiming soon to pass the “Visual Turing Test” - the point where virtual reality is indistinguishable from the real world.

(…How would you know…?)

Here’s the quick 90 second summary (click to watch on Facebook):

Here’s a cool photo Meta supplied of all their prototypes so far:

Meta
Credit: Meta via Engadget

…And if you really want to geek out (and slightly creep out), here’s Zuck in a long conversation with, er, himself… and later on Meta Reality Labs chief scientist Michael Abrash:

You have to admire his drive to mature the technology. (But now that Sheryl Sandberg is going… who’s going to watch over the ad business that pays for all that R&D….?!?)

🫧Space bubble shield

A team at the MIT Senseable City Lab presented a concept which directly addresses the question:

“If climate change has already gone too far, what could be our emergency solutions?”

They explore a massive geoengineering solution located out in space…

“Geoengineering might be our final and only option. Yet, most geoengineering proposals are earth-bound, which poses tremendous risks to our living ecosystem. Space-based solutions would be safer – for instance if we deflect 1.8% of incident solar radiation before it hits our planet, we could fully reverse today's global warming”

…arriving at a design made up of thin film bubbles, manufactured directly in outer space and forming an extensive deflective raft positioned at the Lagrangian Point between the Earth and the Sun. It’s beautiful:

Visualisation of disc-shaped space bubble raft floating in front of the sun
Credit: MIT Senseable City Lab

Space-based solar power for China

Echoing a scenario straight out of Liu Cixin science fiction, The China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) announced it intends to execute a space high voltage transfer and wireless power transmission experiment in low Earth orbit in 2028, two years ahead of schedule:

China's massive 2-GW orbital solar power station just got a lot closer
Source: CAST via Eurasian Times

(I covered a similar concept in Memia 2022.11):

“The UK government is reportedly considering a £16 billion proposal to build a massive solar station in space — a big (1.7km diameter) satellite equipped with solar panels which would beam energy back down to Earth, helping the UK achieve net-zero by 2050.”

💬Eco-airships over Spain

British-based Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV), announced it had signed a deal to provide Spanish airline Air Nostrum with 10 of its 100-passenger Airlander 10 helium-filled airships likely for domestic routes in Spain:

Twitter avatar for @memialabsMemia @memialabs
Eco-airship contract to launch 1,800 jobs in South Yorkshire
buff.ly/3MVvyCs?Eco-airship contract to launch 1,800 jobs in South YorkshireSpanish carrier orders 10 helium-filled Airlander 10 aircraft in boost for UK green tech and maker HAVbuff.ly

June 16th 2022

1 Retweet3 Likes

“The aircraft, which according to HAV will have a CO2 footprint per passenger of about 4.5kg compared with about 53kg on a jet plane, are expected to take to the skies with Spanish carrier Air Nostrum in 2026.“

The interiors look better than cattle class…(no, of course they won’t cram as many people in as possible…)

HAV’s futuristic Airlander 10 passenger transport with concept cabin interior designs.
Credit: HAV

2nd attempt at 3 wheels

Aptera, a crowdfunded automotive startup announced that it has raised US$40M and received more than 22,000 reservations for its new 3-wheeler solar-powered electric car, claiming up to 1,000 miles (>1,600km) of range.

(Electrek reports that this is Aptera’s second attempt to commercialise an electric 3-wheeler: their first attempt back in 2006 didn’t get to market and the original company pivoted).

Agritecture

Image sourced from Eden Green

I’ve been at Boma E Tipu conference this week (see below)… with plenty of discussions around the investment logic of moving to vertical and indoor farming.

I came across this article recently from urban farming advisory firm Agritecture which discusses the subtleties involved in the hybridization of agriculture:

“Greenhouses and vertical farms, widely known as trusted methods of year-round agricultural production, seem to be context-agnostic solutions to agri-food supply chain disruptions, desertification, and other climate change-related problems. 

However, they have very significant capital costs. A greenhouse that has environmental controls to deliver fresh produce year-round might cost USD $40 or more per square foot and require significant energy use. Vertical farms too could cost upwards of $350 per square foot, and require even more energy.  

Further, there are political and behavioral considerations to keep in mind as well that may influence the consequences of which method is chosen. So, while these solutions may make sense for some countries with more efficient technology, more developed markets, and low arable land, in other countries they would not. Instead, it might make more sense to grow outdoors or in other mixed methods in these places. 

Figuring out this balance of context and timing for agri-food solutions is what we call the Hybridization of Agriculture.”

🧫Thank you synthetic biology

Also up for discussion at E Tipu: cultivated and fermented food production. Here’s a comprehensive article surveying many of the latest developments in synthetic (=”sustainable”?) foods:

Twitter avatar for @memialabsMemia @memialabs
From dairy to meat to seafood, the future of sustainable food is here. Thank you synthetic biology!
From dairy to meat to seafood, the future of sustainable food is here. Thank you synthetic biology!The very definition of what food is will be challenged by beefless beef, porkless pork, fishless fish, chickenless chicken, milkless milk, milkless dairybuff.ly

June 16th 2022

🍺Oh beer

This week’s good news:

Twitter avatar for @memialabsMemia @memialabs
Study suggests a beer a day can increase diversity of gut bacteria
Study suggests a beer a day can increase diversity of gut bacteriaThe state of our gut microbiome continues to be linked to a range of health outcomes, with the diversity of these microbial populations believed to play an important role in our vulnerability to disease. A small pilot study suggests that moderate consumption of lager beer may influence this…buff.ly

June 19th 2022


Mind expanding

Just one link to share this week: check out Digital Gaia:

Details still evolving (waiting for the “white paper”) but it appears to be a credible technology partnership to better-target and accelerate investment into regenerative projects globally - driven by networks of augmented collective intelligence. (On which topic: check out the website https://www.supermind.design/)


Rollcall

  • Congratulations Peter Griffin and all the team at @SciBlogs for 13 years of service!

Twitter avatar for @petergnzPeter Griffin @petergnz
Honoured to have the final post at Sciblogs which we founded 13 years ago. Thanks to everyone who contributed over the years. @teh_aimee @hendysh @SiouxsieW @DrSJNZ @NanogirlLabs and heaps of others...

Sciblogs NZ @sciblogsnz

Sciblogs gave scientists a platform before social media took over - https://t.co/RIHfQfZQra https://t.co/6bvlzRuiDO

June 17th 2022

6 Retweets56 Likes
  • I spent yesterday enjoying the kōrero (and the kai) at the annual Boma E Tipu food and fibre conference… particularly fanboying futurist and climatetech investor Ramez Naam beaming in from his home in Seattle to give his usual heady dose of techno-optimism. Two key takeaways for me from a set of excellent keynotes on day 1:

  • 1. The international food industry is facing three potential scenarios. Which one would you choose?

Hannah Tucker, Balance Point Advisory
  • 2. The future “Agriconomy” is hybrid three ways: Indoor vertical farming, indoor fermentation and indoor cultivation…with most of the money (US$4.9Bn so far) going into vertical farming so far.

Arama Kukutai, Plenty / Finistere Ventures

Time will tell if Aotearoa’s (almost entirely outdoor) primary sector will reinvent itself in time to remain competitive and internationally relevant…

Meanwhile kudos as always to perpetual rainmaker Kaila Colbin for another awesomely curated and thought provoking event!


Nuggets and gems

The week’s catch of fun stuff to end with:

Quantum physics in one meme

Twitter avatar for @ProfFeynmanProf. Feynman @ProfFeynman
Quantum Physics!
Image

June 18th 2022

9,286 Retweets77,666 Likes

Self-aware Excel spreadsheet?

Top satire spotting @teh_aimee:

“…Staring right back at SSgt McCoy was what can only be described as a sentient being….. the excel document had auto filled and extended the letters IM into IMREAL

…🤯”

Twitter avatar for @teh_aimeeDryad of the City @teh_aimee
Teehee!
An Air Force Airmen at Langley AFB Believes His Excel Spreadsheet Has Become Self AwareSSgt Scott McCoy, from Chicago IL, believes his excel spreadsheet has become self aware. SSgt McCoy said that he started noticing a change…medium.com

June 16th 2022

3 Retweets5 Likes

Infinite monkeys

Twitter avatar for @adrianblissAdrian Bliss @adrianbliss
Infinite monkeys type Shakespeare

June 18th 2022

4,416 Retweets30,050 Likes

Crypto takeoff and landing

This is very funny (click to view on LinkedIn).

That’s all for another week…thanks as always for getting in touch with your ideas, thoughts, feedback, links - more next time.

Ngā mihi

Ben

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Memia 2022.24: TPNW: 62 and counting☢️🚫// not very competitive, then📉// big solar, bigger solar☀️// visual Turing test🤯🥽// space bubble shield🫧// eco-airships over Spain💬
memia.substack.com
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