Strategy note #6: Charting the acceleration (Part 1)

10 dimensions of how the world is changing around us. Faster.

(The latest in Memia’s series of Strategy Notes exploring the convergence of AI and strategy practice…)

---

The new navigation coordinates: charting accelerating change across multiple dimensions

As I explored in my book ⏩Fast Forward Aotearoa, it’s not just AI. *Everything* of consequence feels like it is changing around us at a faster and faster rate.

In this strategy note I’ll skim through the first 5 of 10 key dimensions of the acceleration in charts to illustrate the point:

In this note:

1. Technology

2. The biosphere

3. Demographics

4. Geopolitics and trade

5. Financial system

Next note:

6. Energy

7. Biological science

8. Society and culture

9. Knowledge production

10. Technocapital concentration

And thereafter on to the glaring question: what does this mean for the cadence of strategic planning cycles — which will surely need to accelerate as well? (Punchline: luckily AI can help here…)

• 1. Technology

  • Exponentially decreasing cost curves of compute-per-dollar continue with no end in sight:

    

    Steve Jurvetson after Ray Kurzweil

  • As per every weekly Memia newsletter, new AI capabilities are arriving weekly. AI is now at or surpassing humans on most cognitive benchmarks: (be very careful saying that “AI will never be able to do X”).

    

    Contextual AI

  • Likewise robotics and automation breakthroughs are arriving at breakneck speed:

  • Physical-world autonomy is nearly solved:

    

    via Reddit

  • And swarm intelligence is production-ready:

  • The biggest tech companies are now piling into another round of capex in anticipation of future dividends… or at least not to come third in the AI race:

@NateRattner

• …Which implies the projected AI data center buildout could deliver 4X more energy consumption (…and cooling!) as early as the end of this decade. Where will all this power come from?

Fist, T., & Datta, A. (2024, October 23). How to build the future of AI in the United States: Part two of Compute in America. Institute for Progress. https://ifp.org/future-of-ai-compute/

Fist, T., & Datta, A. (2024, October 23). How to build the future of AI in the United States: Part two of Compute in America. Institute for Progress. https://ifp.org/future-of-ai-compute/

• 2. Biosphere

  The planet’s environment is changing at an accelerating rate as well:

  • Climate change tipping points:

    

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

    

    CarbonBrief: Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

  • Biosphere tipping points: